Back where we started

A new Reuters/Zogby poll – most polls show a tightening in the race– have Republican John McCain opening a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama. More strikingly, the poll suggests that likely voters see McCain as a “stronger manager of the economy.”

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy — an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

With the overblown worries about the economy, fueled by the media’s incessant negativity, these numbers are somewhat surprising. Perhaps citizens inherently understand that more income redistribution, punitive taxes on industry and the investor class and a fantasyland energy policy that relies on taxpayer subsidized windmills and Everlasting Gobstoppers will only exacerbate the situation.

Zogby also points out that many of Obama’s equivocations and policy realignments are hurting him with the liberal base:

Obama’s support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.

All this is awfully reminiscent of 2004 and 2000. Just maybe, despite all the excitement surrounding Obama’s allegedly transcendent candidacy, we are exactly where we were the past two presidential contests.

But let’s not read too much into polls, especially national polls. First of all, states matter: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and maybe Virginia. Second, we will likely see a big shift after the Democratic Party convention next week. Or, Obama should hope we do.

(Cross-posted Post Op-Ed Notes)