McCain-Trotsky

“And if Republicans can forgive McCain-Feingold, McCain-Lieberman, McCain-Kennedy — and probably McCain-Trotsky — surely Democrats will get over a little bickering.” Or, at least, that’s the theory I forward in today’s column.

It’s difficult to believe residual outrage over the nominating process will bleed into the general election. For one, I don’t believe the average voter is paying much attention yet. Clearly, though, perception matters and Obama’s halo has been knocked around a bit. As Ross Douthat reminds us despite the Democratic infighting, McCain still struggles.

Yet even with all this going for him, McCain’s poll numbers are bumping up against the same 45 percent ceiling that they’ve been hitting since December. If the election were held today - a pretty good day for McCain, all things considered - he’d probably lose to Obama, and might lose to Clinton as well.

Would he “probably lose to Obama, and might lose to Clinton as well”? Sure, McCain has a lot of work to do. Sure, despising Republicans is now a national pastime. But the election isn’t about national poll numbers, it’s about Ohio, Florida (maybe), Colorado, New Mexico, etc … McCain polls well with independents in many of those states.